WHY NEW ORLEANS IS WORRIED

This was published August 28th, prior to the onslaught of Katrina..........Scott


WHY NEW ORLEANS IS WORRIED

NEW ORLEANS TIMES PICAYUNE - Georges, a Category 2 storm that only
grazed New Orleans, had pushed waves to within a foot of the top of the
levees. A stronger storm on a slightly different course -- such as the
path Georges was on just 16 hours before landfall -- could have realized
emergency officials' worst-case scenario: hundreds of billions of
gallons of lake water pouring over the levees into an area averaging 5
feet below sea level with no natural means of drainage.

That would turn the city and the east bank of Jefferson Parish into a
lake as much as 30 feet deep, fouled with chemicals and waste from
ruined septic systems, businesses and homes. Such a flood could trap
hundreds of thousands of people in buildings and in vehicles. At the
same time, high winds and tornadoes would tear at everything left
standing. Between 25,000 and 100,000 people would die, said John Clizbe,
national vice president for disaster services with the American Red
Cross.

"A catastrophic hurricane represents 10 or 15 atomic bombs in terms of
the energy it releases," said Joseph Suhayda, a Louisiana State
University engineer who is studying ways to limit hurricane damage in
the New Orleans area. "Think about it. New York lost two big buildings.
Multiply that by 10 or 20 or 30 in the area impacted and the people
lost, and we know what could happen."

Hundreds of thousands would be left homeless, and it would take months
to dry out the area and begin to make it livable. But there wouldn't be
much for residents to come home to. The local economy would be in ruins.


The scene has been played out for years in computer models and
emergency-operations simulations. Officials at the local, state and
national level are convinced the risk is genuine and are devising plans
for alleviating the aftermath of a disaster that could leave the city
uninhabitable for six months or more. The Army Corps of Engineers has
begun a study to see whether the levees should be raised to counter the
threat. But officials say that right now, nothing can stop "the big
one."

Like coastal Bangladesh, where typhoons killed 100,000 and 300,000
villagers, respectively, in two horrific storms in 1970 and 1991, the
New Orleans area lies in a low, flat coastal area. Unlike Bangladesh,
New Orleans has hurricane levees that create a bowl with the bottom
dipping lower than the bottom of Lake Pontchartrain. Though providing
protection from weaker storms, the levees also would trap any water that
gets inside -- by breach, overtopping or torrential downpour -- in a
catastrophic storm.

"The worst case is a hurricane moving in from due south of the city,"
said Suhayda, who has developed a computer simulation of the flooding
from such a storm. On that track, winds on the outer edges of a huge
storm system would be pushing water in Breton Sound and west of the
Chandeleur Islands into the St. Bernard marshes and then Lake
Pontchartrain for two days before landfall. . .

"As the eye impacts the Mississippi coastline, the winds are now blowing
south across the lake, maybe at 50, 80, 100 mph, and all that water
starts to move south," he said. "It's moving like a big army advancing
toward the lake's hurricane-protection system. And then the winds
themselves are generating waves, 5 to 10 feet high, on top of all that
water. They'll be breaking and crashing along the sea wall."

"All of a sudden you'll start seeing flowing water. It'll look like a
weir, water just pouring over the top," Suhayda said. The water will
flood the lakefront, filling up low-lying areas first, and continue its
march south toward the river. There would be no stopping or slowing it;
pumping systems would be overwhelmed and submerged in a matter of hours.


"Another scenario is that some part of the levee would fail," Suhayda
said. "It's not something that's expected. But erosion occurs, and as
levees broke, the break will get wider and wider. The water will flow
through the city and stop only when it reaches the next higher thing.
The most continuous barrier is the south levee, along the river. That's
25 feet high, so you'll see the water pile up on the river levee."

As the floodwaters invade and submerge neighborhoods, the wind will be
blowing at speeds of at least 155 mph, accompanied by shorter gusts of
as much as 200 mph, meteorologists say, enough to overturn cars, uproot
trees and toss people around like dollhouse toys. . .

Stranded survivors will have a dangerous wait even after the storm
passes. Emergency officials worry that energized electrical wires could
pose a threat of electrocution and that the floodwater could become
contaminated with sewage and with toxic chemicals from industrial plants
and backyard sheds. Gasoline, diesel fuel and oil leaking from
underground storage tanks at service stations may also become a problem,
corps officials say.

A variety of creatures -- rats, mice and nutria, poisonous snakes and
alligators, fire ants, mosquitoes and abandoned cats and dogs -- will be
searching for the same dry accommodations that people are using.

Contaminated food or water used for bathing, drinking and cooking could
cause illnesses including salmonella, botulism, typhoid and hepatitis.
Outbreaks of mosquito-borne dengue fever and encephalitis are likely,
said Dr. James Diaz, director of the department of public health and
preventive medicine at LSU School of Medicine in New Orleans.

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf?/washingaway/thebigone_1.html

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GOP MOVES TO SLASH PUBLIC FUNDING

[Note the Post's editiorial position on this matter as indicated in the
last sentence below]

JONATHAN WEISMAN WASHINGTON POST - Lawmakers are drafting proposals that
would cut billions of dollars from the growth of Medicaid, slice into
student loans just as students return to college, pare back food stamps
and trim farm price supports in the midst of a midwestern drought.

The raft of bills, due out of 16 committees in the House and Senate by
Sept. 16, will present the Republican Party its toughest test of fiscal
austerity in nearly a decade. For years, the party has embraced the
rhetoric of small government while overseeing legislation that has
helped boost federal spending by more than a third since the GOP took
control of Congress 10 years ago. Now, Republican lawmakers will be
faced with the tough votes needed [sic] to slow that growth and enact
the first cuts in entitlement spending since 1997. . .

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/08/27/AR2005082700696.html



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MID EAST
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THE FORGOTTEN HISTORY OF IRAN'S ENTRY INTO NUCLEAR ENERGY

DAVID KAY, CTR FOR STRATEGIC AND INTNL STUDIES, 2004 - The first nuclear
reactor given to Iran was given by the United States in 1967 - a
five-megawatt trigger reactor, research reactor, under the Eisenhower
Atoms for Peace Program. . . The other thing that Americans forget is
that in 1974, the shah announced a policy of 23,000 megawatts of nuclear
energy in Iraq. The US reaction? Henry Kissinger beat down the door to
be sure that two US constructors, General Electric and Westinghouse, had
a preferred position in selling those reactors. We did not say, "it's a
stupid idea, why would you want to do that when you are flaring gas and
you have immense oil reserves?" We said, "That is very interesting; it's
an example of how the Iranian economy is moving and becoming modern."
Imagine in Iranian ears how it sounds now when we denigrate that
capacity. They remember. We were sellers of nuclear reactors and wanted
to be sellers of nuclear reactors to the shah.

DAVID ISENBERG, ASIA TIMES - Consider that just a year or so prior to
the 1979 Iranian revolution, the country was producing more than 6
million barrels a day of oil and its domestic consumption was less than
10% of that output. Its annual natural gas production (almost all in the
form of associated gas) was roughly about 12 billion cubic meters of
which some 9.5 billion cubic meters was exported to the Soviet Union and
only 20% was consumed domestically. Iran's population was about 35
million. Meanwhile, Iran had signed a number of nuclear power
construction contracts with France and Germany and was negotiating with
others for additional ones. The stated objectives of these undertakings
were to generate electricity and desalinate water. But according to the
pre-revolution politicians there was also always an attempt to explore
the nuclear technology for military purposes. But there was no overt
opposition to the shah's nuclear ambitions because of friendly relations
between Iran and US.

In fact, president Gerald Ford signed a directive in 1976 offering
Tehran the chance to buy and operate a US-built reprocessing facility
for extracting plutonium from nuclear reactor fuel. The deal was for a
complete "nuclear fuel cycle" - reactors powered by and regenerating
fissile materials on a self-sustaining basis.

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/GH24Ak02.html

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OTHER NEWS
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GROSS NATIONAL HAPPINESS

RICHARD INGHAM, SOJO MAIL - In 1972, the king of Bhutan declared that
his Himalayan country (which is the size of Switzerland) would
henceforth measure progress with gross national happiness instead of
gross national product. It is still the only country in the world to do
so. . . In inventing their government, Bhutan's leaders asked themselves
how to maintain balance between materialism and spiritualism while
seeking the clear benefits of science and technology; the possible loss
of tranquility and happiness with the advance of uncontrolled modernism
was an abiding concern. . .

In 1998, the government's master plan was developed, named the four
pillars of happiness. Then-Prime Minister Thinley said these pillars -
sustainable economic development, conservation of the environment,
promotion of national culture, and good governance - create conditions
"in which every individual will be able to pursue happiness with
reasonable success."

The plan is working, and Bhutan's success with the environmental pillar
alone is remarkable. A few years ago, the residents of a village famous
for its migratory cranes proudly installed electricity in their village.
It was soon discovered, however, that some cranes were flying into the
power lines. The villagers tore them down and switched to solar power.

Although all four pillars would find their advocates in America, it is
unlikely the pillars could be incorporated whole cloth into our notion
of public good. One of the reasons the pillars and gross national
happiness work in Bhutan is the country's distinct philosophy and social
cohesion; no such singular vision and cohesion exist in America.

http://www.sojo.net/index.cfm?action=news.display_article&mode=C&NewsID=4925


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FURTHERMORE. . .
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WHAT CITIES CAN DO TO GET THROUGH THE ENERGY CRISIS
http://www.fromthewilderness.com/free/ww3/082405_world_stories.shtml#2

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